Whether because of election integrity, culture wars in public schools or campaign stops at a local McDonald’s, the national spotlight in recent years shined on Bucks County near Election Day.
With Republicans and Democrats vying to control Congress, the General Assembly and the Pennsylvania governorship, there may be good reason to expect the 2026 midterms to focus back onto a county that narrowly reelected U.S. President Donald Trump one year, then historically packed its row offices with Democrats the next.
Bucks County’s voters have a “ticket-splitting mentality,” according to Republican strategist Sam Chen. This could be one reason why pundits and analysts have been keen to dissect the opinions of one of the purplest counties in Pennsylvania.
Trump, a Republican, narrowly won Bucks County in 2024 by just 291 votes over former Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, while former U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pennsylvania, took Bucks County by 2,241 votes against current GOP U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick the same year.
County voters also favored Republican candidates for Pennsylvania attorney general and auditor general while half of the 10 state House races on the ballot in 2024 went to Republicans and the other to Democrats.
“The (Philadelphia) collar counties have traditionally been moderate Republican, and Republicans have lost their grip on that,” Chen said.
“Because Republicans have been able to win there while they keep losing ground in the other three collar counties, and because Bucks splits its tickets, it’s become kind of the crown jewel in that southeastern Pennsylvania region.”
The Nov. 3 midterm election is still nine months away, but the focus of national campaign committees has already turned toward Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District seat in Bucks County and control of the state General Assembly, where every House seat and half the state Senate is on the ballot.
Couple those contests with a gubernatorial race pitting Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, an Abington native, against Republican Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacey Garrity, and this election year seems to already be putting all eyes on Bucks County once again.
Can a Democrat finally beat a Fitzpatrick for Congress?
Midterm elections are typically viewed by campaign experts as a referendum on the sitting president.
“Historically, the midterm election goes the opposite direction of the party in the White House,” Chen said. “And Trump has one of the highest unfavorable ratings of any president at this stage.”
Most polls have Trump’s current approval ratings underwater nationwide. His net approval rating among Pennsylvanians was at -13% as of Jan. 8, according to polling platform Civiqs.
Democrats need a net gain of three seats to gain control of the House in 2026 and overcome the five-seat lead held by the GOP.
There are also four vacant seats in the House after the resignation of former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Georgia, on Jan. 6, and U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-New Jersey, on Nov. 20. U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Texas, died in November, and Republican U.S. Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-California, died the same day that Greene resigned.
Retaking control of the House would be a major win for the Democrats, who could then have legislative control to block the Trump administration’s agenda.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report still lists the 1st Congressional District race as “likely Republican,” putting it just on the fringes in its prediction of where the House races could end up.
Cook has held the district in that range for most of 2025, even as 18 other races recently shifted in favor of Democrats in other states across the country.
Inside Elections, another nonpartisan election analysis group, moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” in December, according to Politics PA.
The contest for Fitzpatrick’s seat could be one of the most competitive races in the country as members of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee take aim at Republicans in “vulnerable” districts, according to a committee spokesperson who spoke to this news organization on background.
While the Middletown lawmaker isn’t as prominent a GOP figure as House Speaker Mike Johnson or former MAGA champion Greene, Fitzpatrick has been gaining notoriety and national headlines over the years (including a nod as potential replacement for former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy).
Fitzpatrick’s sudden departure from the House floor after voting against the budget bill that wrapped up Trump’s second-term agenda into one legislative package in July made him one of two Republicans to buck the GOP on that key bill.
He also led an ultimately failed bill in December to extend Affordable Care Act benefits before they expired in 2025, before joining 16 other Republicans voting with Democrats earlier this month on another bill retroactively extending the health care subsidies.
While those votes might bolster Fitzpatrick’s reputation as the most bipartisan member of Congress — a designation repeatedly awarded to him by Lugar Center’s Bipartisan Index — the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already been quick to push back on that messaging.
Democrats pointed out that an earlier version of the budget bill Fitzpatrick had supported almost came down to a tie vote in the House last May, which would have killed the bill as experts warned the billions in cuts projected would mean cuts to Medicaid and other social safety nets.
Those cuts were why Fitzpatrick would later say he couldn’t support the bill that Trump signed into law on July 4.
Fitzpatrick’s alternative tax extension bill was also criticized because it included other reforms to the health care law and came when Democrats were just four signatures away from forcing a House floor vote on a bill that didn’t include those other changes.
As Democrats will likely try to draw comparisons to Trump and Fitzpatrick and a kind of selective-bipartisanship on the campaign trail, Republicans don’t seem concerned about its odds at retaining the seat this year.
A spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee seemed unfazed by the opposition’s focus on the seat this year given his past ability to win against challengers both in primaries and general elections.
Fitzpatrick also has the largest war chest of any current candidate filed with the Federal Election Commission, holding nearly $7 million in cash-on-hand, according to the most recent campaign finance filings.
That’s approximately $2.5 million more than his campaign ended the 2024 election cycle with and $2.4 million more than the candidate with the second-highest cash reserves, 2nd Congressional District U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle, D-Pennsylvania.
The window to officially file nomination petitions doesn’t start in Pennsylvania until Feb. 17, but so far there are no Republican challengers and potentially four Democrats on the ballot for the May 19 primary.
Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie was the first to throw his hat in the ring last April. Buckingham resident Rob Strickler, a political outsider, and New Hope attorney Tracy Hunt, a former Republican, joined the race in August.
Quakertown resident Lucia Simonelli, a former scientific advisor in the U.S. Senate, entered the race late last year.
Harvie and Hunt are the only Democrats who have campaign finance filings, which cover a period from the start of last year through the end of September, before Simonelli entered the race. Strickler has unconventionally focused his campaign on voter engagement and not campaign contributions.
Harvie has approximately $231,868 cash-on-hand after raising $557,839 so far, while Hunt has about $32,263 on hand after raising $36,693 in the roughly 60 days between when he announced and the end of the filing window.
PA General Assembly, governor’s seat on the ballot in 2026
While the congressional race will almost certainly receive more national attention than who represents Bucks County in Harrisburg, Republican and Democratic campaigners aren’t overlooking the commonwealth entirely.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) is looking to take back the House in Pennsylvania’s General Assembly as the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) works to defend the one-seat majority after flipping the chamber in 2022.
All House seats are on the ballot this year, including Bucks County’s 10 legislative districts that are now evenly split between Republicans and Democratic representatives.
Republicans control the state Senate in a 28-22 split with 25 seats up for grabs this year. The races on the ballot include multiple senators who represent Bucks County: the 10th Senate District held by Democratic state Sen. Steve Santarsiero, the 6th Senate District held by Republican state Sen. Frank Farry, and the 16th Senate District held by Republican state Sen. Jarrett Coleman.
Pennsylvania and Michigan are the only two states in America with party control split between its legislative chambers.
Candidates are expected to emerge in those races as the primary approaches, but a party’s control over a state legislature can have national implications.
An October memo from the RSLC included Pennsylvania as one of several battleground states in a “redistricting arms race” that would be “essential for Republicans in 2029.”
“If we fail to take state legislative elections seriously in 2026, Democrats and their money machine sure will,” the GOP memo stated. “This could result in massive losses for state Republicans this cycle and the redistricting pen in a number of key states in the hands of the Left when redistricting resumes in 2027.”
Party control in the General Assembly could also indicate whether the state will be more or less likely with the party in control at the federal level.
Republicans in the state Senate introduced on Jan. 16 a bill establishing statewide standards of cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to support the Trump administration’s increasing actions against people who lack legal status.
State Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin, introduced the bill just days after announcing he would not seek a rematch against Shapiro in this year’s race for Pennsylvania governor.
The Mastriano-Shapiro contest in 2022 was closely watched across the country, as the race was seen as a political litmus test of the resolve of the MAGA movement and whether a Democrat could draw in moderate Republicans.
Shapiro has already drawn comparisons between his apparent GOP challenger Garrity and his former foe Mastriano during his reelection announcement stops in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on Jan. 8.
It remains to be seen whether Garrity can leverage her term as the state’s treasurer pushing to refund unclaimed property back to Pennsylvanians, or if Shapiro can pull a performance similar to his 15-point win in 2022 later this year.
But Shapiro’s ties to Montgomery County — coupled with rumors of his presidential ambitions — will likely bring more attention to Bucks County as the year goes on.
The last day to register to vote for the 2026 primary in Pennsylvania is May 4. More information on how to register and vote can be found at the Bucks County Board of Elections website or the Pennsylvania Department of State’s website at www.pa.gov.
